The Myth of the Moderate Swing Voter, and Why Tim Walz is a Brilliant Choice for VP

Walz is living proof that progressive policy and swing voters can and do mix

I’ve worked in Democratic politics for sixteen years. I’ve worked eight election cycles and staffed two Presidential campaigns. I’ve worked as an organizer, a pollster, a behavioral researcher, a messaging strategist, a general consultant, and a senior advisor. And just over seven years ago, I co-founded Arena, an organization that convenes, trains, and supports the next generation of candidates and campaign staff. As I’ve walked this winding path, what I have observed time and again — among staffers, activists, strategists, and funders — is a widespread, fundamental misunderstanding of the people we call “swing voters” (the undecideds who need persuading and can make up the small margins of victory in close elections).

That lack of understanding coupled with a desire for simplicity has led our community to reduce the complex humanity of swing voters, and to tailor our campaigns’ persuasion messaging to a stereotype that is not representative of the data. In this piece, I’ll debunk three myths about swing voters that have led the Democratic party to pursue bad strategies in the past, and share my take on the approach we should embrace instead (Spoiler Alert: Tim Walz is already modeling it).

Myth 1: Swing voters are white non-college men.

Fact: Swing voters are younger, more female, and more diverse than the electorate overall.

Democratic strategists have had a tendency to reduce the segment of swing voters to the stereotype of a demographic that more closely resembles Trump’s base: white working class men. While there are certainly plenty of swing voters with that demographic profile, the reality is that the segment that comprises swing voters is 60% female (whereas 53% of all likely voters are women), and only 62% white (compared to 71% of all likely voters). It is true that swing voters skew non-college at 67%, but consider that 64% of all likely voters are non-college (and roughly 62% of all American adults do not hold bachelors degrees). The swing voter segment is younger, more diverse, and more heterogenous than Democrats typically recognize (see chart from Data for Progress below).

Myth 2: Swing voters are ideologically moderate.

Fact: Swing voters skew to the Left on both social and economic issues.

It is true that many swing voters self-report as “moderate” with a plurality of 37% identifying this way (note: this stat can be misleading as the majority of swing voters select different identifiers when available). My hypothesis is this has much more to do with a rejection of partisanship and dogma than it does favorability of moderate positions, and the evidence of this is well-documented in the data.

When surveyed about their policy positions on both social and economic issues, swing voters skew to the Left. According to the swing voter study conducted by Data for Progress in April and May of this year, 60% of swing voters say they believe the government should spend more on social programs and increase taxes on businesses and the wealthy, while only 23% say the U.S. should cut taxes and spending. In the same study, 52% of swing voters said they favor accepting non-traditional values and embracing diversity and inclusion efforts, while only 27% favor a restrictive approach to non-traditional values and diversity and inclusion efforts.

Take a look at the bar chart below (and keep in mind that Data for Progress ran this survey in the spring before Biden withdrew his candidacy). The two actions swing voters identified as things that would cause them to definitely vote for Biden were raising taxes on the wealthy (23%) and raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour (18%). Increasing border security comes in third with 17%, but is followed by expanding medicare coverage to include vision, dental, and hearing (16%), increasing protections for abortion (16%), cracking down on corporate price gouging (16%), limiting the sale of assault weapons (12%), and canceling student debt for more borrowers (11%). Of the eight actions that broke double digits among respondents, seven are considered progressive.

As a friend of mine puts it, swing voters are generally for moderation of tone (they’re sick of the partisan shouting match), but most of them are not for moderation of policy. What swing voters have in common is not moderate policy preferences: it’s a distaste for the rancorous culture of our politics and a frustration with self-interested politicians who don’t seem to care about people or make change they can feel in their daily lives. If anything, they want to see bigger things getting done, and faster.

Despite a great deal of evidence over the years, Democrats have had a hard time believing what the data tells us: that the pathway to victory does not require that we run on moderate policy positions (more on what it does require below).

Myth 3: To win swing voters, Dems should get tough on crime and the border.

Fact (okay…well-supported opinion!): To win swing voters, Dems should double down on making it possible for all of us to thrive, not just survive.

There are strategic reasons why taking a “get tough” approach to crime and immigration is the wrong one (Dems aren’t credible when they try to out-tough Republicans and it eliminates contrast), and there are moral reasons why it’s the wrong one. And then there’s the fact that only 8% of swing voters select immigration as their most important issue when selecting a candidate, and even fewer select crime (see Data for Progress chart below).

Going all the way back to The Southern Strategy, Republicans have used status threat and fear mongering to captivate and fire up their base. And Republicans have had a lot of success in getting Democrats to play into their hands (look no further than Biden’s recent comments on the border). They would love nothing more than to make crime and the border the central issues of this election, but that’s not the conversation most swing voters are looking to have. Swing voters are concerned about the economy, and more specifically, personal economic wellbeing.

And it’s not just swing voters. We don’t need to deliver one message to swing voters and another to the base. Cost of living is the #1 ranking issue for just about every voter segment we survey. This is particularly the case for Gen Z and Millennials, who represent an increasingly powerful and important segment of the electorate.

So, what do swing voters need to hear Dems talk about?

Democrats have historically over-engineered the question of what issues to focus on. The answer is simple: focus on the intersection of issues that are urgent and important to us (as Democrats), and issues that are urgent and important to the voters we need to win. I, like the Vice President, love a Venn Diagram.

Making an economy that works for all of us is smack dab in the middle. Zoom in further, and you’ll see that when voters say they are concerned about “the economy,” what they really mean is the cost of living. Voters are sick of just getting by, and all they want is for it to be a little bit easier to get ahead, a little easier to care and provide for their families. Making housing, groceries, and transportation more affordable? Yes. Making paid family leave a reality? Yup. Making healthcare, education, and childcare accessible and affordable for everyone? Bingo. Look at the undecided voters who are leaning to the left already, and you’ll see reproductive freedom and gun violence (safety) are also top issues. There is your agenda.

Tim Walz already knows all this, and that’s exactly why he’s an excellent choice for VP.

Some of you may have felt surprised by Kamala Harris’s choice of Tim Walz as her running mate. Maybe you assume this choice is playing to the base, as Walz is known for his track record of passing progressive policies. But Walz is proof that winning swing voters isn’t about holding moderate policy positions or taking tough stances on issues like immigration. It’s about appealing to common values (like the freedom to live free from the fear of gun violence); it’s about speaking to the issues that affect our daily lived experience (like cost of living); it’s about assuming the best instead of the worst in people; it’s about bringing authenticity and a spirit of getting things done.

Walz won his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives by ousting a Republican who had served six terms. He reminds us that you can compromise without compromising your values. He’s pragmatic and straightforward, and he’s not about to get into a shouting match. And as a governor, he has focused on policies that changed peoples’ lives in meaningful ways — he’s passed 12 weeks of paid family leave, universal free meals in public schools, and universal background checks, among others.

His politics is progressive, but it’s not steeped in ideology. There is a clear bottom line and it’s this: getting things done to makes peoples’ lives better. His is the brand of politics you often see practiced by a small town Mayor, but rarely see practiced by a national public figure.

That’s the kind of politics swing voters want. It’s a political culture that feels foreign and distant to many, unreachable to some. It’s turning over a new leaf, rejecting the conventional wisdom that plots voters to a linear spectrum, rejecting the zero sum game, and giving people a chance to answer the call of their better angels. It’s leading with heart and refusing to give into the politics of hate and fear. It’s bringing laughter back, because sure, Trump and Vance are fascists, but also…they’re just weird.

It might just be unbridled optimism. And that is how we’ll win.